Monetary Policy

  • Interest rates could remain low for a long time.

    21 December 2015

    How Long Can Interest Rates Stay Low?

    When a central bank lifts interest rate targets by 0.5% it expects households and firms to respond. In a crisis, the official target may fall by 3% in order to shock the economy into a positive response. These movements of interest rates by the central bank are an important tool of macroeconomic adjustment.

    They are also relative to the longer term, or normal rate of interest in the economy. What is interesting now is that rates have been low for quite a long time suggesting the natural rate of interest in the economy has fallen permanently.

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  • The Fed hiked rates and the experts weigh in.

    18 December 2015

    Ask the Experts about the U.S. Fed Rate Hike Decision

    Three, two, one, liftoff!

    Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Lehigh University

    It finally happened: the nine-year-long spell of near-zero interest rates came to a logical end. The Fed raised its funds rate target in the first step toward normalizing US monetary policy.

    Was this decision justified? Yes, for many reasons.

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been gradually preparing markets for a hike for a long time, leaving today’s decision in little doubt: only about 15% of traders didn’t think it was coming.

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  • The BOJ surprised the markets with a few tweaks to monetary policy.

    18 December 2015

    Japan's Central Bank Tweaks its Monetary Policy

    The Bank of Japan was the fourth major central bank to meet this week.  Sweden and Norway kept policy unchanged.  The Fed hiked.  There was no expectation that the BOJ would do anything.  Governor Kuroda surprised the market with largely operational tweaks to what Japan calls Qualitative and Quantitative Easing.

    Initially, and perhaps with the help of headline reading algos, the yen sold off and Japanese shares rallied.  As cooler, or perhaps human, heads prevailed, the markets reversed. 

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  • Fortunately, the markets seemed prepared for the Fed's first rate hike.

    17 December 2015

    The Sky Did Not Fall

    Asia extended the US dollar's post-Fed gains while Europe has seemed content to consolidate the move, perhaps waiting for US leadership.

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  • Yes, the Fed raised rates, but the language was dovish.

    16 December 2015

    A Dovish Interest Rate Hike?

    For the first time in 9 years, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in a move that could make many loans more expensive for companies and Americans.  Speaking today in Washington D.C., Federal Reserve Janet Yellen discussed the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to raise its Federal funds rate target 25 basis points, making a new target range of 0.25 to 0.5%.

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  • Will this rate hike be reversed next year?

    16 December 2015

    The Greenspan Conundrum

    There are many investors and observers who do not think the Fed ought to raise interest rates today.  The Fed's targeted inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, stood at 1.3%, well below the 2% target.

    They see the fresh sell-off in oil prices and are more concerned disinflation than inflation.  Over the past week or so, more concern has been expressed about the sell-off in the high yield bond market. 

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  • Is the time right for a rate increase?

    16 December 2015

    Fed Day: Not Tight, Just Less Easy

    The much-awaited Fed meeting is here.  A 25 bp increase in the Fed funds range to 25-50 bp is widely expected.  The near certainty of this contrasts to the high uncertainty of the immediate impact stocks, bonds, and the dollar.  There are five components of the Fed's decision that will command attention.

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  • Low interest rates was supposed to be good for investment.

    15 December 2015

    Consequences of Setting Such a Low Interest Rate Bar

    With the US Federal Reserve seemingly set on raising interest rates, it is time to take stock of what low rates have done for the world. In addition, what the prospects are when this era of low interest rates ends.

    Since the financial crisis, short-term interest rates have been close to zero in most major economies. The US Federal Reserve has held interests around 0.25% for the last seven years. Meanwhile, the UK’s bank rate remains at 0.5% and in Sweden the central bank has set a negative nominal rate.

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  • The Fed is the highlight, but four other central banks meet this week.

    15 December 2015

    The Fed Meets, but So Do Other Central Banks

    The euro made marginal news highs near $1.1060 while sterling and the yen have been confined to yesterday's ranges.  European equities are bouncing off ten-week lows.   The dollar-bloc is firm; the upbeat RBA meetings provided only a short-lived fillip higher.  Oil prices are steady to firmer after yesterday's recovery. 

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  • The ECB's Mersch offers points that should not be lost in the noise.

    11 December 2015

    From the Mind of Mersch

    Investors, fellow central bankers, and the media continue to try to make sense of last week's ECB surprise.  We had argued that given the market positioning, especially the dramatic accumulation of speculative short euro positions since the middle of October that the market was prone to a correction. 

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